Report Compiled: 2020-05-04

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: 3377100 Max Data Date: 2020-05-03

NYT Repo Commit: 7f6009f Max Data Date: 2020-05-03

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-14 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 404.4977 682.5028 1119.4836
2020-06-14 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 469.1944 742.6292 1939.2446
2020-06-14 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 886.8712 1241.7905 2140.8848
2020-06-14 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 515.2543 1059.4327 3344.3797
2020-06-14 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 244.4176 522.6957 1952.2203
2020-06-14 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 595.9236 1436.3918 6022.0499
2020-06-14 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 722.0584 1474.2829 3156.3842
2020-06-14 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 596.7189 1632.7244 5914.7065
2020-06-14 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 362.2290 635.7220 1702.7023
2020-06-14 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 447.9849 743.6945 2483.2134
2020-06-14 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 654.5204 1225.6240 2538.4198
2020-06-14 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 472.1055 1114.7450 4334.5305
2020-06-14 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 267.6061 361.6452 576.6455
2020-06-14 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 346.7147 478.6089 808.2527
2020-06-14 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 610.9718 1102.2335 2153.7745
2020-06-14 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 465.3915 879.6321 1908.5512
2020-05-18 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 214.4098 285.4725 475.0011
2020-05-18 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 270.4650 369.0221 508.8354
2020-05-18 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 294.2369 386.7446 482.2099
2020-05-18 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 282.7195 347.6005 529.4816